That Iran Thing

I've been a bit too busy to comment on the kidnapping of 15 British sailors and Marines by the Iranian Government, but I think Ahmedinejad just proved that he is not someone who can be trusted, or who has any kind of clue about how Westerners think.

I know quite a few Iranians here in Dubai and they are without exception lovely people, but I guess they are the smart ones who had the means to escape from the craziness of their current government. They certainly do not behave anything like the crackpot Ahmedinejad, the ladies do not cover themselves up, and all in all they are perfectly normal people who enjoy a beer and a good time.

I've not seen the movie '300' either, but I do believe that Persia/Iran has a stupendous history and culture, and what is happening there now is a complete travesty.

Occasionally you see articles in the press about why it is almost impossible to negotiate with Iranians. They are obsessed by face (this is important in most Eastern cultures too - loss of face is about the worst thing that can happen to you, short of actually dying). Whereas Westerners might suffer from a bit of pride, they can also admit that they have been wrong without dying of shame. It's a big, big difference. So an Iranian negotiator considers that you have already lost face by the simple reason that you are willing to negotiate. Bare-faced lies are also crucial to the art of negotiation.

The parading of the captives making forced 'confessions' on TV was disgusting. What has now been released about how they were actually treated is vile. Ahmedinejad's statement that they were being pardoned as a 'gift to the British people' was ludicrous, and today's demand for a bit of goodwill - help to get 5 Iranians held by the US released - from Iran's UK Ambassador is just one prod too much. I'll be surprised if he's not on a plane home by the end of the week.

Incidentally, Betterarf reckons the Brits would have been released a few days earlier, but the tailors that were hired to make the appallingly bad grey suits that the Brits were sent home in were all on holiday for NowRooz.

Happy Easter y'all.

Bloggers In Jail

For God's sake, what is wrong with this region? We have heard of bloggers being arrested, Mahmoud in Bahrain is facing a defamation case, and now an Egyptian blogger has been sentenced to four years in jail for 'insulting Islam and [Egyptian president/dictator] Hosni Mubarak'. Egyptian Blogger Gets 4Years

What the hell is wrong with Middle East governments? Are they so weak that they cannot stand a little criticism? Is it the end of the world when somebody points out that Egypt's Mubarak is a dictator? This is not exactly news, now is it? As for 'insulting Islam', why is that considered a crime? People everywhere have different views of various religions, not all of which would be welcomed by the followers of those religions. But to throw people in jail for speaking their minds is just totally barbaric.

I'm sorry, people think what they think, and you cannot stop them from doing it. Governments cannot legislate that people must think what they think. Not real governments, anyway. I have always been unable to understand why such a populous country as Egypt, supposedly a democracy, has allowed Mubarak to continue in power for so long. They have the political mechanisms to get rid of him, don't they?

But here's the point. Nobody, in any place or at any time, should be threatened with jail time for simply saying what they believe, unless they have actually slandered, libelled or defamed someone. Journalists, bloggers, the average Abdul on the street should be free to say what they like: how can it be otherwise?

Throwing people in jail, blocking blogs, closing down newspapers, imposing censorship. These are all, ultimately, pointless, inhumane, barbaric activities. They show lack of respect for individual God-given rights. No Government can legitimately take those rights away from people. I am disgusted by the actions of the Egyptian government in this case.

Middle East Democracy

Towards the end of last year the UAE Government announced a plan to introduce a little bit of 'democracy' into the selection of members of the FNC (Federal National Council). I blogged about it then, and was possibly a bit disparaging. Some of the Emirates have now started the process of selecting their councils. Emirati blogged about it, and concludes that this is not democracy. Well, certainly it's not.

But this is where we run into problems, because politics and democratic ideas are so new in this region. There is absolutely no tradition of 'voting' for things. There is a tradition of consultation in Majlises, but that only works when you are dealing with a small number of people. A leader simply cannot ask a million people what they think. I think the UAEs slow and cautious approach is probably wise, given that we actually have the best possible leadership in place right now. It's actually not broken, and doesn't need fixing. The rest of the world, however, thinks otherwise.

We have already seen that democratic elections in Iran threw up the lunatic Ahmedinejad, in Palestine the terrorist Hamas organisation won, and Iraq is a complete can of worms that now can probably not be solved without a horrible civil war and the eventual splitting of the country into three bits. Even sleepy Bahrain has its share of Islamist MPs who would be very happy to take their country back to the 14th century.

Now, I know that in a true democracy, you cannot say 'vote for anybody you like, but if that guy with the long beard and crazed look in his eye wins then we cancel the election and have to start again'. But this is the very very real danger that democracy poses to the Middle East right now. The 'wrong' people will win. I'm talking about Islamists / theocrats. They will win because they want to win. Because the moderate voices of the moderate candidates will not be heard. Because the indigenous population of the Middle East is so pissed off with the way the West has treated them, that they will vote for the guys that will irritate the West most.

To say that the Middle East is not yet ready to embrace Western-style democracy is a total understatement. It'll all end in tears, you mark my words.

Democracy in the UAE

UAE President Khalifa's announcement of limited elections to the Federal National Council is a very, very small step in the right direction. Half of the 40 members of the FNC will be elected. The rest will continue to be appointed by the various emirates. The composition of the electorate is peculiar to say the least. The Ruler of each Emirate will appoint a local 'council' equal to 100 members for each FNC seat.

The FNC itself seems to be a rubber-stamp for legislation created elsewhere - it does not have the power to introduce its own laws.

And the composition of the FNC is surprising. The two largest Emirates, Abu Dhabi and Dubai, have eight seats each, Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah each have six seats, while the remainder (Umm Al Quwain, Ajman and Fujairah) each have four seats. This composition bears absolutely no relationship to the population of the 'constituencies'. So, tiny Umm Al Quwain, population about 40,000, has one FNC seat for every 10,000 residents. Dubai, population about 1.3 million, has one FNC member for every 162,500 residents.

But Khalifa has said that this is the first of many steps. He promises to revise the constitution to allow a greater role for the FNC. And no doubt eventually ALL nationals will get a vote.

Middle East Democracy

Sorry fans, I have not been exploring wider issues in our region. Possibly because I'm not a full-on political analyst, I only know what I think. Possibly because I was afraid of any repercussions, but I know hardly anyone reads this blog. Possibly I'm too lazy.

Anyhoo, prompted by a couple of things, I think it's about time I added my twopenn'orth*.

The first thing was a little article on democracy on small cavy's blog... the second was a very thought-provoking article in today's Gulf News. I reckon if it's OK for Gulf News to print it then it's OK for me to blog about it.

In my opinion, democracy is not that great. It has many notable features, but it can end up as a total compromise if you have a really big electorate (look at India). But when democracy can put a disingenuous evil-minded git like Dubya in charge of the world (twice!), then it ain't working. The idea of democracy and universal suffrage is superb, and the idea of 'Government by the people, for the people' is just sublime. We say to our 'rulers', 'we put you in charge, on our behalf. But never forget it. You are our representatives, not our bosses.' And when we get fed up of them we impeach them or we elect a replacement set.

That idea seems to have had its day or the so-called rulers in the West have forgotten it. Now the US has the disgusting Patriot Act, and the UK 'government' are trying to enact something very similar. Forgive me, but any law that allows detaining people (any people, no matter how long and straggly their beard may be) indefinitely without trial or even any charges being laid is wrong, wrong, wrong.

George Bush has been harping on about bringing 'democracy' to the Middle East. I laughed out loud when I first heard this idea. Bear in mind, it took hundreds of years for a form of democracy and eventually universal suffrage to become established in the minds and hearts of voters in Europe and North America. The notion that you think you can just transplant this to places like Afghanistan or Iraq is laughable.

But it will be interesting to see if, when and to what extent a little bit of voting will be allowed here in the UAE. Apparently the Constitution already allows for the election of members of the Federal National Council - the only problem right now is the severely restricted number of voters.

*= 'two penny worth', auld English idiom meaning 'my worthless contribution'.